If you know me, you won’t be surprised to hear me say that I don’t believe people should be investing in cryptocurrencies with their retirement funds. Crypto is fine for speculators and there is a role for speculators in our economy, but speculating is a dangerous game to play for ordinary investors.
You get a sense of the volatility of crypto in this price chart of bitcoin. The last three years have been a wild ride for bitcoin investors. The price of bitcoin dropped by 70% in 2021, and it has gained it all back in the last year.
Bitcoin and the other crypto options are new forms of currency that trade on the new blockchain technology. For simplicity, I will focus mainly on bitcoin in this post as it is the biggest cryptocurrency.
As an investment, it is best to think of bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies as commodities and not currencies. They behave like commodities whose prices are mainly driven by supply and demand factors. Crypto prices are much more volatile than traditional currencies like the dollar or the euro.
The crypto enthusiasts believe that this new form of payment represents a seismic shift in how we are going to handle money in the future. I understand their enthusiasm, but I have no idea what the future for cryptocurrencies will look like.
Last year we saw the creation of ETFs for cryptocurrencies, and it is now possible to invest in crypto inside some 401K plans. The introduction of these new ETFs and the approval of crypto for 401K plans has and will increase the demand for cryptocurrencies which drove the price increases over the last year.
Bitcoin has also become popular in countries with high inflation and devalued currencies, such as Venezuela. Additionally, it is popular with those who use it to transfer large sums of money for illicit and illegal activities.
Bitcoin will have a fixed number of coins minted and the supply will stop increasing in 2140. The number of new bitcoins introduced gets cut in half every four years. Limited supply is one of the main attractions of bitcoin to speculators.
Let’s compare bitcoin as an investment to my favorite investment, stocks.
When you own one stock or hundreds of stocks in an ETF, you own a share of the profits that those companies produce. On a simplistic level, when the profits of the companies increase, the price of the stock increases and the opposite occurs when the profits decrease. We know that other things influence the price of stocks in the short-term but in the long-term the biggest factor is profits.
If you are like me and you believe in the long-term profit growth of the companies in index funds representing the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq, for example, you can be very confident that those stock prices will be higher in the future.
Cryptocurrencies don’t produce any sales or profits on their own. As a currency, they facilitate sales but there are no income statements to evaluate for bitcoin.
Buying bitcoin is gambling and not investing. There is no consistency or predictability of bitcoin as an investment. And nobody understands why bitcoin goes up or down in value. Clearly the price of bitcoin is a function of supply and demand, but what drives the demand side of the equation other than people betting on a future dominated by crypto? Nobody really knows. What if more countries introduce regulations to limit the use of cryptocurrencies? It is believed that China moving away from bitcoin in 2021 led to the big decline in crypto prices.
When you truly understand your investments, you understand the risks associated with those investments. Very few investments come without any risk. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of any investment is the key. S&P 500 Index funds are great investments but owning one of these funds does subject you to the irrational and dramatic ups and downs of the stock market. Knowing that allows you to be more patient during periods of stock market volatility because the stock market always goes up in the long run.
If you have some “fun” money that you can afford to lose and the idea of speculating on bitcoin appeals to you, go right ahead. But you should not include bitcoin in your retirement investments.
Stay Disciplined My Friends,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
The stakes associated with fixing your 401K are really high. You and your family have a lot riding on your 401K and IRA.
If your investments continue to underperform, you’ll have a seriously underwhelming retirement. You will be destined to a future in which you’re worried about daily bills, affording your healthcare, and possibly even having to go back to work.
On the flip side, the potential for an extraordinary retirement is as enormous as the risk of a hard one. Most people also don’t understand the opportunity that they’re missing by not fully maximizing their investments.
If you invest your 401K funds properly, you should be able to retire with millions of dollars in your retirement account.
But since people are afraid of getting crushed by the stock market, they put too much money in bonds and cash investments. This allows people to sleep better at night, but it ends up costing them millions in retirement.
People also receive lousy advice when it comes to how best to invest the money in their 401K. The financial services industry has failed investors like you. They peddle mediocre solutions and charge high fees.
Assuming that you are funding your 401K properly, the two biggest factors affecting the quality of your retirement are your investment returns and the time your money has to grow. So, you need to make better investment choices for your 401K, and you need to do it now. Time is not on your side.
Fear and a lack of knowledge paralyze people and they stay stuck with a bad investing strategy and poor results. Don’t get stuck in this trap. You can and should have an incredible retirement.
Get educated and get the help you need today.
There are three things you need to do to maximize your retirement account:
1. Learn the investing basics
2. Choose better funds for your 401K or IRA
3. Have a proven strategy to protect your savings against losses in stock market meltdowns
We can help you with all three. Request a free consultation today by scheduling an appointment here. We can set you up with a customized training plan. We can review your investments and answer any questions you might have. And we can create custom retirement projections for you so you can know where you stand.
The sooner you fix your 401K the more money you will end up with.
You deserve better. Your family deserves better.
Schedule your free no-obligation consult by clicking here.
Happy Investing,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
Do you notice how much conflicting investment information there is out there?
Here are some of the varying points of view that we all come across daily:
Buy bonds.
Don’t buy bonds.
Don’t buy funds.
Buy individual stocks.
Buy international stock funds because the economies in places like India and South America will grow faster than the US economy in the coming decades.
Don’t buy international stocks.
We will avoid a recession and this will be a big year for stocks.
The US economy will be going into a recession in 2024 and stocks will decline by 30% or more as a result.
I could keep going and going with this list. It seems that no one can agree on anything about investing or the economy.
Why is this the case and, more importantly, what is the average investor supposed to do with all this conflicting information?
There are several reasons why all these contradictions exist.
Nobody can predict the future with any accuracy or consistency. It is just too hard to predict asset prices and the economy. There are too many things (known and unknown) that affect financial markets.
The motivation of the forecaster may not be about being correct. Often, the people who predict things just do it for media attention. Bold and dire predictions get the most clicks and the most views. Look for hidden agendas.
When it comes to investing guidance, people are relying on different facts or theories. And some of those theories are driven by the interests of the investment industry and not the interests of the investor.
Because the investing world is so messy and full of conflicting information, it is important for you to:
Ignore short-term forecasts of things that are too hard to predict like the direction of the stock market, the direction of the economy, the direction of interest rates, etc. Since investing is a long-term game, this is fine. Stay focused on long-term data and data that is consistent.
Understand the data and the facts behind the advice. Is it just an opinion that is grabbing a bunch of facts to support their opinion? Or is the advice driven by sound and consistent data and logic that have held up for 30 years or 50 years or more?
Understand the motivation of the forecaster or expert. Are they committed to truth and logic or are they going to benefit financially if you believe their assertion. The Asset Allocation model based on risk-profiling is the financial lifeblood of the investment services industry. If you believe in their model, then you will need their services and you will pay their fees to help you manage your investments.
The facts are very clear. There are several foundational principles about investing that you can rely on:
The broad US stock market as measured by the S&P 500 will grow by roughly 9% to 10% per year over the long term.
Large cap, growth index funds can generate 12% to 13% per year in the long run.
The best you can do with bond funds is about 3% to 4% per year.
International stock funds have only generated about 6% per year over long periods of time. International stocks also carry currency risk.
Stock market investments will be very volatile. In the short-term, stock prices will be move up and down irrationally.
To be an excellent investor, you need to do just a few things well.
You need to take a long-term view. Focus on your 5-year, 10-year and 20-year returns. Avoid the temptation to win on short-term trading. Short-term trading is gambling and not investing.
You need to invest in the funds that have the best and most consistent long-term performance. You will not be able to beat the market in the long run by picking individual stocks.
You need to invest in a very disciplined fashion. Avoid emotional investing.
You need to have a proven and tested strategy of dealing with the inevitable stock market collapses.
Stay Disciplined My Friends,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
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