ARE WE IN A BULL MARKET NOW?

SUMMARY:

• Did you know that the stock market is in growth mode about 84% of the time?

• Did you know that the stock market grows at a rate of roughly 15% per year during these growth cycles?

• So the odds are pretty good that we are in a bull market right now.

• It if weren’t for those dreaded bear market crashes, investing would be easy.

• Successful investors capture most the big gains during the 84% of the time the market is in growth mode, and they avoid most of the big losses during bear markets.

• When you understand how capitalize on these 84%/16% odds, you can do this too.

PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR

This pie chart makes the situation pretty clear.

Because the stock market (the S&P 500) is in high growth mode 84% of the time, you want to be aggressively invested in the stock market most of the time. The odds are pretty good that we are in a bull market right now.

Bear market crash cycles only happen about 16% of the time, but because they are so painful (average price drop of 39% per year) that people are afraid of being aggressively invested in the stock market.

This is the dilemma that stock market investors face.

Nobody can predict when the next big bear market crash is going to happen or when the bull market will return after a collapse.

This is also why the traditional “Buy & Hold” strategy of the investment industry is so painful.

But it is also why the traditional “Buy & Hold” strategy works to some degree.  If the market is growing at a high rate (15% per year) most of the time (84% of the time), stock market investors end up winning in the long run.

But those crashes are incredibly painful financially and emotionally.

If you had a system to get out of the stock market when the risk of a collapse was high, you would be much more confident about investing aggressively in the stock market, wouldn’t you? 

And if you had a system to get you back into the stock market when the odds of a bull market run were high, you could capture most of those big 15% per year gains while avoiding most of those painful 39% drops.

That would be a good thing, right?

No one can predict what is coming next but since the market is in growth mode 84% of the time, the odds are pretty good that a bull market is right around the corner.

This is what my Beyond Buy & Hold system is about. This is what I spent years and years creating and perfecting. 

If you know you have an alert system in place to get you out of the stock market when the odds of a crash are high, you can sleep better at night and you can be very confident about investing aggressively in the stock market when the coast is clear.

The concept is simple.  The math behind the system is complex but I came up with a way to make this proven system used in my hedge fund available to all 401K investors.  I call the system Market Signals.  We do all the work, and we simply tell our customer what to do based on the data and the signal.   

Market Signals is not some day-trading gimmick. It works because it is based on the right strategy, basic math and common sense. It is not perfect, nothing is. It is just much better than the very mediocre strategies and systems that are available to ordinary investors.

Our customers are 100% invested in the stock market and have been since November.   The stock market is up about 10% since November.  A 10% gain in two months. Normally, investors would be freaking out having 100% of their money in the stock market.  But not when you know you will get out before they could get wiped out in a market meltdown.

Our customers can sleep better than all of the other investors who have been told to put 70% of their money in stocks and 30% of their money in bonds. All of the other investors are told to just buy and hold and watch 70% of their money get crushed in a bear market and they found out the hard way that bonds can lose money too – see 2022.  The financial advisors make this asset allocation approach sound safer, but it isn’t.  All it does is lower your investment returns.

If you are interested in a safer and better way to invest, check out Market Signals here.

For a more complete explanation of Market Signals and how it could rescue your retirement, check out my book, FIX YOUR 401K.

Happy Investing,

Phil

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Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.

Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.